Thanks for tuning in for the second installment of Fresh Insights (sent 2 June 2011, subscribe to get it fresh). In case you missed it, here's the first one. I only write what I know, so brew a fresh cup and read on about domains, tech and sushi.
Domaining
Generic Top-Level Domains (gTLDs)
Domain names are 21st century real estate. ICANN runs all these virtual estate names on the interwebz, so you have to apply for a gTLD like .store or .coffee through them (dibs on .hustler).
All you need is a meager $185k application fee and $25k per year, granted no conflicting applications or disputes arise (like .shop and .store). If, however, a dispute doth arise, thou shalt pay an adjudication fee on the order of $70k to $122k per hour. Yes folks, I ain't talkin' rich, I'm talkin' wealthy [video]. This may upset the whole domain market, but I don't think it will.
What happens to the value of .COMs when gTLDs like .coffee and .store are commonplace?
I'm with Jason on this one: their value will rise. Whenever new properties enter an existing real estate market, the values of surrounding prime properties go up. Despite 250 diverse TLDs, .COM remains the gold standard. All things being equal in a search result, would you rather click on a .com or a .ws link?
The only place where this breaks down is hyper-local search industries like bars and restaurants. SushiBar.co.za, for example (which I own), beats SushiBar.com for Cape Town sushi restaurants. I predict the greatest value created by disruptive gTLDs will be for large industries that are traditionally slow to embrace the Internet, e.g. .farm or .agri. Sushi is small fry compared to the rice and potato industries.
Headlines
Groupon files for $750 million IPO
So the bankers under-priced the IPO stock for LinkedIn (Facebook for professionals). Although I cannot discount foul play with the initial pricing, methinks 'twas simply Goldman Sachs carefully dipping their toes back in the bubblebath.
This hasn't stopped the fast-growing semi-tech company Groupon from filing for a $750 million IPO yesterday after burning through a billion dollars in VC money. Post-bubble cohorts like Farmville-maker Zynga and Facebook must be frothing at the mouth to file similar public offerings to drive up stock valuations.
The LinkedIn (share code: LNKD) pricing debacle will ensure that these companies insist on better terms from the wily banks. Unfortunately tech stocks, like designer handbags, do not subscribe to mere mortal supply-and-demand economics, so don't short your Farmville cash any time soon.
Facebook IPO in May 2012?
If the 3-year-old Groupon could fast-track their IPO, the big question is why Facebook (founded 2004) hasn't IPO'ed yet?
Perhaps Facebook wanted LinkedIn to dirty up the jacuzzi's water first, but I suspect that somewhere in Utah, a gay kindergarten teacher was Zuckered out of their job when his wall posts were made public by Facebook in 2010 without permission. And now he is fabulously pissed off, and rightly so.
An impending class-action privacy lawsuit stemming from unscrupulous handling of private user information could pop a few of Zuckerberg's pimples if filed on the heels of a $100 billion IPO. Despite my speculation, it is rumoured that Facebook will cross the 500-investor mark with a late May 2012 public offering.
Stay Tuned...
Stay tuned for the third installment of Fresh Software Insights in which I speculate on a foreseeable federal anti-trust lawsuit against Google, my favourite type of power animal and why coders on coke aren't rockstars.
Want More?
Earlier this week I wrote Whaddaya mean you can't get a job? Part 1 and Part 2: How to Apply for The Job. The rate at which I am churning out tech insights is more than ample for a weekly newsletter, so I'm going to try to write more frequently about more breaking news. If you feel that's too often and you'd prefer longer, but less frequent rants, let me know via petrus@freshcode.co.
If, on the other hand, you enjoy my dubious predictions, please forward this to smart, like-minded individuals like yourself and help me build an intellectual readership.
Regards
Petrus
freshcode.co